e. as a linear function, The general aggression model proposes that the probability of aggression increases because of Periers barometer reads 30 inches at 0 feet, 28.7 inches at 1,300 feet, 28.2 inches at 1,800 feet, 27.2 inches at 2,800 feet, 26.2 inches at 3,800 feet, and 25.2 inches at 4,800 feet. When firefighters arrived to battle a blaze reported at a Van Nuys bar early Wednesday, they found a man pouring gasoline from a plastic jug outside the building. The point is that, other things being equal, simple explanations, like frequently occurring and nonmysterious explanations, have a higher prior probability. This certainly does not mean that every unfalsifiable explanation is false; it only means that if we are to reason to its truth, it must be via a different sort of argument. d. all of the above A hypothesis attempts to explain natural phenomenon and can be tested through experimentation; a theory attempts to summarize a large expanse of natural phenomenon and has already been tested thoroughly without contradictory results. Its a bit inconvenientI have to walk almost two miles there and backbut its worth it. For a scientific explanation to be testable, it must also be ________. The MIU supplier of concrete had required MIU to give one days notice of the need for concrete, but never agreed to provide it for the next day until first referring to the National Weather Service. Clarify the explanatory argument in each of the following passages. Even eliminating four violent deaths (all men, two of them murders), the 53 percent death rate for men far exceeded the 29 percent rate for women. A) experiential method B) scientific method C) intuitive process D) strategic management process E) account planning philosophy B) scientific method It makes no statement with respect to causation. B. I would be following the same strategy if I introduced you to a student of mine and declared that she had special coin-tossing skill, proven by the fact that she has just now, on demand, tossed heads five times in a row. Neither of the two alternatives has been ruled out, and either is more probable than that she is one of the very few people who has perfected special coin-tossing skill. Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004 Soles . Here is one good way of clarifying it: From a logical point of view, the chronological relationship between the two does not matter. Two Alternative Explanations to Bear in Mind. Its like coming back from the dead. . d. revised frustration-aggression theory If your hypothesis is "Echinacea reduces the duration and severity of the symptoms of the common cold," what is your null hypothesis? Well, Abby, this should clear up the mystery of MY missing pipe. 16. In some cases, it can be tempting to accept an explanation with an extremely low prior probability simply because you cannot think of any plausible alternative. It includes the presumption of causation. The second premise states that the observable outcome has happenedthat it really has been observed. The mountain argument can be clarified roughly as follows: For a more substantial example, lets look at a famous explanatory argument from science. For each explanatory argument below, (i)identify the explanation, (ii)state whether it is the sort of thing that is known to happen, and (iii)compare its frequency to at least one alternative explanation. Which occurs more frequentlyburglars or butterfingers? the operation of the whole mind rather than the individual parts. Another good way to check for an improbable outcome is to ask this: Does another explanation for this outcome already exist? The first part of the total evidence condition is that the observable outcome must have a low prior epistemic probability. Scientists were right to reject these formerly offbeat views until they could make good sense of them, and they will be right to reject the paranormal, ancient astronauts, and homeopathic medicine until they can also make good sense of them. Chemical analyses of this particular meteorite, however, established that it was only 1.3 billion years old and made of cooled lava. A 17-pound meteorite of unknown origin was found in Antarctica. From 20 percent to 25 percent more eggs under the filters hatched successfully than those that were unshielded. , I can remember, not long ago, listening to a pal rail about a mutual friends apparently overwhelming need to flirt with every man in a given room. Males exhibit higher levels of aggression than females. Weban explanatory hypothesis for a natural phenomenon that is exceptionally well supported by empirical data. Be more suspicious of explanatory arguments in which the explanation was invented after the observable outcome was observed. And if regulation side-whiskers were all the rage, they would not indicate that the man was a sergeant in the marines. General explanationssuch as Newtonian mechanics applies to the motion of celestial bodies or Vitamin C helps prevent coldsdo not lend themselves to the question about comparative frequencies because they are general. It includes the presumption of causation. A frequently observed and poorly understood phenomenon in which there is a positive response to treatment with an inactive substance. Punishment motivates learning better than does reward.. For general explanations, a good way to check for simplicity is to ask. Pascal, due to his own bad health, persuaded his brother-in-law, Perier, to carry a crude barometer up the Puy-de-Dome in the south of France, taking measurements as he went. Psychologists scientifically study ________. William James was the ________. Thousands of lives are going to be wrecked over this. At least one source of income was going to be wrecked. c. Express thoughts but not feelings. d. fans become more aggressive under the influence of alcohol I think it might be haunted. Could you find out for me which five days that man is on the road? c. Aggression sometimes facilitates performance and sometimes does not. According to William James, the purpose of psychology was to ________. In the study of personality, the ________ model includes dimensions of conscientiousness, agreeableness, neuroticism, openness, and extroversion. e. b and c, a. athletes view aggressive acts that would be judged inappropriate in society in general as more appropriate in the sport environment, The research examining the relationship between aggression and performance supports which conclusion? A. applying a set of skills to understand and evaluate information. In another type of distinction, some explanatory arguments are general, given that they have application to a wide range of possible observable outcomes; others are singular, in that they apply only to a specific outcome. It makes no statement with respect to causation. It is not offered as a reason to believe that the water boiled quickly. Suppose your friend, having slept in the car during the trip and being unaware of the altitude, argues, Hey, this water boiled quickly, so we must be well above sea level. This is an explanatory argument, and the conclusion bears no resemblance to the premise. A team of researchers recently found no differences that would account for the beak variations. As the decades passed it was not forgotten, and the comet appeared on Christmas Day, 1758. But suppose I offer the alternative explanation that air pressure is highly irregular but that it so happens that barometric pressure nevertheless would be 30 inches at 0 feet, 28.7 inches at 1,300 feet, 28.2 inches at 1,800 feet, 27.2 inches at 2,800 feet, 26.2 inches at 3,800 feet, and 25.2 inches at 4,800 feet. We reviewed their content and use your feedback to keep the quality high. Instrumental aggression is aggression occurring. Both the premise and the conclusion of an inductive generalization are concerned with the same subject matter. A later investigation showed that there was indeed a correlation between TM and warmer weather, but an even stronger correlation between TM and the preceding afternoons forecast of warmer weather for the next day. d. d. causing mental or physical harm to another person regardless of the intent of the act Sample answer. Fairly strong. a person's unconscious. Wilhelm Wundt, Sigmund Freud, Noam Chomsky. First American psychologist. Clearly, smoking causes cancer. a. Thanks for the example to W. V. Quine and J.S. Which of the following statements best distinguishes hypotheses from theories in science? But the premises would provide virtually no support for the Newtonian conclusioncomets do appear from time to time, so this particular outcome would have been virtually certain anyway. b. in the quest of some nonaggressive goal. The independent variable is manipulated to cause-effect on the dependent variable and the dependent variable is measured to examine the effect Which of the following exemplifies the empirical method? Populations have the capacity to change over time. About a month later this letter appearedreally: Dear Abby: The letter from the traveling man who spends five days a week on the road interested me. Suppose Halley had decided to look for confirmation of Newtons celestial mechanics by studying the sun rather than comets and, based on Newton, had confidently predicted that the sun would rise the next day. Competition for food among finches on Galapagos causes the extremes in beak sizes. Further, we have a conceptual framework for Buffets skillthe causal mechanism makes sensefor his strategies have been widely publicized, and the small handful of others who have had the discipline to follow them have also succeeded over the long run. I subconsciously wanted the test to succeed, so I tended not to count less severe colds that I otherwise would have counted. thoughts and their relationship to our experiences and our actions. . Just as a good explanatory argument rules out coincidence, it also rules out deception. 1. Null hypothesis : this is known as the default hypothesis.It states that Which of the following choices correctly describes a double-blind test? The meteorites Martian roots will probably be debated until scientists agree on just how a piece of the planet could have been ejected with enough speed without vaporizing. Several of the younger trees by Beaver Creek stream are now nothing more than two-foot posts sticking out of the ground; the treetops are nowhere around, and the top of each stump comes to a curious point. Why would a scientist choose to state their hypothesis as a null hypothesis? Deduce what? said he, petulantly. D. It excludes the presumption of C. An increase in family income leads to an increase in the percentage of income spent on housing. This argument would have the same form as the first one, differing only in the nature of the observable outcome. In short, coincidence has not been ruled out, so we cannot judge this to be a logically strong argument. I thought it was the wind blowing up the canyon, like it does, you know, except it was real still. The leading alternative explanation is that the manager has succeeded by sheer luck. For singular explanations, ask whether this sort of explanation is known to occur and, if so, if it occurs more frequently than do the leading alternative explanations. Second, its explicit premisethis water boiled quicklyis the observable outcome of the explanation. But if Halley was right about Newtons views, there would be detectable regularitiescertain comets would be found to follow fixed elliptical orbits around the sun. You must have observed the way in which he held his head and swung his cane. c. as either reactive or instrumental Without using a calculator, find P100P^{100}P100. structuralism, functionalism, behaviorism, humanism. Being a plumber, I was summoned to the home of an attractive woman to repair a faulty shower nozzle that was spraying water all over her bathroom. 1& 0\\ An intellectual activity, encompassing observation, description, experimentation, and explanation of natural phenomena. You note a fuzzy growth on some of the gels in your incubator. The argument might now be clarified as follows: Given that the explanation calls for a uniform decrease in air pressure, it would then predict that if samples were taken at all other altitudes on the Puy-de-Dome, they would be plotted on the graph along a line described by the smoothest curve that can be drawn through the points already there, as follows. This is why, for example, we are amused but not persuaded by the rooster who thinks that the sun is raised each morning by his mighty crowing. d. college students studying counseling B. Favor outcomes that would falsify alternative explanations. Not too badly, if we compare the frequencies of each. A Guide to Good Reasoning: Cultivating Intellectual Virtues by David Carl Wilson is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, except where otherwise noted. In which of the following situations is aggression likely to occur? If it is a singular explanation, you can ask if it is the sort of thing that is known to happen, and if it tends to happen more frequently than do the alternatives. Web1) Direct observation of phenomena, empirically testable hypotheses, and the ability to rule out rival hypotheses are all essential tenets of the ________. A hypothesis is a tentative explanation . Suppose the prior probability that the butler did it was .10, likewise for the chambermaid. There are two types of hypothesis. Which of the following is NOT a useful step in resolving peer conflict (especially in teenagers) in a nonviolent way? He claims he has no knowledge of the Molotov cocktail. , For many years, ship captains navigating the waters of Antarctica have been intrigued by rare sightings of emerald icebergs. [5] A graph of these results, representing our evidence in this case, looks like this. Which of the following would be classified as an aggressive act? The arguer must have imagination to devise an explanation that is something more than a generalization of the experienced facts; and the evaluator must have imagination to think up viable alternative explanations for the sake of comparison. a person's unconscious. WebThe explanatory hypothesis is the heart of the case formulation. . Young women purchase fewer meats than women who are 35 years of age or older. This hypothesis is not necessarily the right explanation. But when, having slept in the car, your friend says, This water boiled quickly, so we must be well above sea level, this is offered as a reason to believe that we are well above sea level. You'll get a detailed solution from a subject matter expert that helps you learn core concepts. Suppose you see an advertisement in the business pages touting a stock fund that has topped the market for five years in a row. This, the ad says, proves that the manager of the fund is especially skillfuland thus that you should invest large quantities of cash with this manager. Another way to put this is to ask whether there is a satisfactory conceptual framework for the general explanationand whether it is more satisfactory than the alternatives. General explanationsNewtonian celestial mechanics, for exampleare intended to apply broadly; Newtons theories explain the motion of all heavenly bodies at all times. They want to show how tough they are. An explanatory argument contends that certain facts can best be explained by a certain theory, and thus that the theory must be true. In Maslow's hierarchy of needs, the ________ include food, water, and shelter. Sample answer. A hypothesis is a tentative explanation . The first premise states that the theory, or the explanation, really does enable you to predict the facts, or the observable outcome. Then it is a deductive argument and commits the fallacy of affirming the consequent. Formulate a hypothesis. e. They were born with an aggressive urge, e. They were born with an aggressive urge, Research on game reasoning (also called bracketed morality) has shown that Abbys explanation is that the wife is having an affair; the observable outcome is that the pipe unexpectedly appears and then mysteriously disappears. The girls explored the area on ____ bicycles. 2003-2023 Chegg Inc. All rights reserved. (In the spring of 1983, the topographical feature was officially named Pointe Bernard Shaw). Several other terms account for roughly the same thing. The problem, the supervisor decided, simply stemmed from somebodys mishandling of the frame. Another contemporary of his, French mathematician and philosopher Blaise Pascal, suspected that Torricelli was right but that a greater altitude was required to prove it. A relationship that has been established based on a large amount of observational and experimental data is: Why is it that creationism can never be accepted as a scientific explanation of the origin of life? Premise 1 is probably true. . Further, we suppose that causal mechanisms operate uniformly in the worldthat under similar circumstances they operate similarly, and that slight dissimilarities in circumstances tend to produce slight dissimilarities in the way they operate. C. Hypotheses and theories not supported by trustworthy and methodical scientific studies. All of these. This is the place to ask about coincidence as an alternative explanation. b. thought out versus impulsive The observable outcome follows from this explanation just as well as it does from the explanation that it was merely the butler who did it, but the simpler butler explanation has a higher prior probability. [2] In 1687, Isaac Newton published his monumental Principia. WebTranscribed image text: www.bbt.com Our Time.com Cesearch Foundations, Process, and Ethics Savod Which of the following is an explanatory hypothesis? According to the given data. WebWhich of the following statements is true of an explanatory hypothesis? It is the best understanding that we have of that part of the natural world. Why does the speaker emphasize silence? If-clause is compared favorably to alternative explanations. This tentative explanation can either be proved or disproved by carrying out tests or experiments. Scientists generally base scientific hypotheses on previous observations that cannot satisfactorily be explained with the available scientific theories. Practically speaking, however, explanations that do precede their observable outcomes are often logically stronger. a. Ask whether the outcome is too vague. While waiting for my clothes to dry, I slipped into a robe hanging on a hook in the bathroom, and I must have thoughtlessly put my pipe into the pocket. This is a way of emphasizing the importance of an improbable outcome. Suppose on the camping trip your friend wonders why the water boiled so quickly, and you reply, Because we are at a higher altitude. This is not an argument. e. a and c, General strategies for controlling spectator aggression include which of the following? Which aspect of the scientific method occurs first? As we have seen in the preceding chapters, the conclusion of a strong induction must fit both the premises and the available background evidence. [Hint: First find P2P^2P2. He was a man with some amount of self-importance and a certain air of command. Here is one of the classic exchanges:[4], Dear Abby: Im a traveling man whos on the road five days a week. I dont smoke a pipe. a. A) experiential method B) scientific method C) intuitive process D) strategic management process E) account planning philosophy B) scientific method Living organisms are able to respond to stimulisuch as light, moisture, or another organism. Look for deception as an alternative explanation. Roughly, since we are not allowing for the cost of commissions, for dividend income, and the like. c. Aggression will occur only if socially learned cues signal that it is appropriate to be aggressive in a particular situation. A(n) ________ is a chamber that isolates the subject from the external environment. [1001]. Nevertheless, we clarify and evaluate the argument just like the comet argument. Then it is an explanatory argument. The university acted as its own contractor, and construction was pushed forward regardless of weather conditions. Ban alcoholic beverages at sporting events. A Guide to Good Reasoning: Cultivating Intellectual Virtues, Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License, The Total Evidence Condition (1): the Improbability of the Outcome, The Total Evidence Condition (2): the Probability of the Explanation, [If we are well above sea level, then water boils quickly.]. The group taking vitamin C has substantially fewer colds than the group taking the placebo. Is there no other explanation of the outcome that already exists? I have a pretty young wife (my second) whom Ive always trusted until last Friday night when I came home, put on my bathrobe and found a well-used pipe in the pocket! An hypothesis is an idea that gives a tentative or temporary explanation to a phenomena. What was the primary conclusion of Stanley Milgram's obedience research? Hierarchical organization. Falsifiabilitythe requirement that it be possible to specify some observable outcome of an explanation that could prove it to be false. An explanatory hypothesis for a natural phenomenon that is exceptionally well supported by empirical data. If you evaluate the probability of the appearance of the comet but include in your background evidence the assumption that Newton is correct, then (setting aside the problem this would probably be the fallacy of begging the question) the probability of the 1758 comet would be very highit is, after all, derived from the Newtonian explanation as its outcome! Explanation: the meteorite came from Mars. Thirty of the 40 who died were men and, says Grayson, most of the male deaths occurred before that of a single woman. The set of analytical and mathematical tools designed to help researchers gain understanding from the data they gather is called. Specialists found the cause by taking motion pictures of the patients vocal cords during an attack and during a normal period. There would be no good reason to expect the outcome prior to these two steps: Why is this criterion important? An explanatory argument contends that certain facts can best be explained by a certain theory, and thus that the theory must be true. e. none of the above. Structure an explanatory argument, when it would be loyal to do so, as follows: the first premise states that if the explanation is correct, then a specified outcome of it will be observable; the second premise states that the outcome has been observed; and the conclusion states that the explanation is thus correct. We can also ask the same of singular explanations, although one way of asking it of singular explanations is to ask whether this sort of thing is known to have happened before and whether it occurs more frequently than the alternative explanations. The correct form for an explanatory argument, assuming that P is the explanation and Q is the observable outcome, is this: The first premise, often implicit, states that the explanation enables you to predict the observable outcomethat it really is an outcome. Suppose, for example, that on a camping trip to the mountains you say to your friend, This pot of water boiled quickly at this altitude; so all water boils quickly at this altitude. The premise and conclusion are both about the boiling of water at this altitude. This makes good sense. The characteristics of an experimental system subject to change; for example, time (the duration of treatment) or specific elements of the treatment, such as the substance or procedure administered or the temperature at which it takes place. That smacked of the sea. b. athletes view aggressive acts as more appropriate in society than in the sport environment The scolding and praise are no better than a fifth wheel in the argument, since the outcome is highly probable anyway. Also termed the data, the prediction, or the facts. If you are like most people you suggest, Eight is in the set. And my reply is that yes, 8 is included, because I am thinking of the set of all whole numbers. The International Society of Sport Psychology developed a position paper on aggression in sport. This closure did not occur during a normal period. Studies show that you can do as well as the typical mutual fund simply by throwing darts at the financial pages to choose your stocks. Prior probability: higher than moon and Venus alternatives, but still too low to consider the logic of the argument any better than undecidable, since there are problems with the conceptual frameworkscientists cannot understand how a piece of the planet could have been ejected with enough speed without vaporizing.. When have you had to convince someone to do something? People in the South tend to rate the President more favorably than do people in the North Real estate investment trusts (REITs) experienced a record level of profitability in 2004. Weban explanatory hypothesis for a natural phenomenon that is exceptionally well supported by empirical data.

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