> However EVERY SINGLE BITCOIN TRANSACTION IS PERMANENTLY RECORDED AND TRACEABLE. Im not so sure youre right about mining them though, especially if you mine with computer hardware that you already have. I was tempted by the neat aspect of being involved in this thing I knew would have some kind of future value blockchain. Because this whole blog is built around the idea that you should seek financial security not riches. January 2, 2018, 5:44 pm. Im pretty disappointed that no one responded to the points brought up by Mark D. Just more tulip bulb analogies, glib dismissals, etc. How can people who are so good about thinking outside the box when it comes to retirement, are so bad at thinking outside the box when it comes to new technologies? Its not that I enjoy seeing people suffer, but who am to talk them out of it? January 5, 2018, 12:35 pm. Brent Weaver Incredible comment. I'm sure this had nothing to do with their personal stake in the outcome." Shorting bitcoin would just be speculation in the opposite direction. Ive been thinking of doing just that.. And then I put it off for a few weeks, and the price jumps up exponentially. We have been in an expansion (the weakest one in US history) for almost 9 years. Congratulations on your earnings. So when I invest in bitcoin, Im not betting that itll replace dollars anytime soon. A prescient article, but unfortunately, those of us that have investigated Bitcoin and come to the same conclusions(no interest in speculation, possibly completely value-less) must continue to put up with the Bitcoin bulls, and as seen in this comment section, they are extremely bullish. How else should people behave? But its not some spectacular Instant Trillionaire piece of magic. Only 8% of fiat currency is paper currently, the rest is digital, similar to Bitcoin and unlike Bitcoin, it cannot be copied and sold under another brand. The amount of people who have posted on /r/personalfinance this year who sold crypto, then bought back in, and lost big, is astounding. The kids pulverize the bricks to make brick dust, which is the most valuable currency/commodity in their forest kingdom. That is the right way to think about these things. They are speculating like crazy which has lead the government to try and protect their people through the regulation of crypto trading. Im not an IT guy of engineer so I could be wrong, but the energy issue and the safety issues you mention makes Bitcoin tera incognito for all intelligent human beings. I keep thinking of that movie where the actor says Explain it to me like Im a 2 year old.. January 15, 2018, 9:02 am. While I was in Kenya, the central bank had capped rates at 14%. Ryan Thomas Its closest to an MLM for me. Stocks and bonds and real estate can all enter into bubbles. I just wish it had come out before the holidays so I could have just pointed family members to it instead of attempting (unsuccessfully!) MMM writes things like currency should not be artificially sparse and should expand. Im only a mediocre computer scientist. Why? You should have just invested in winning lottery tickets instead of bitcoin, they have had a much much higher rate of return. Bitcoins are all the same, they are not numbered, they dont rot and dont have a shelf life. If you're like most Americans, you're a few . Therefor, John will go on believing strangers on YouTube over me so I will be there to pick up the pieces when the house of cards crumbles. The fees are incredible. I use purse.io to buy stuff from Amazon. Youre 100% right that fiat currency is only good when people trust itand that trust could be ZERO. Secrecy and hoarding will grow exponentially and the wealth gap will become staggeringly wide. Also true. I have shown from above that their is value in digital currencies. People are genuinely mad at me for calling out this speculative aspect (note that I did not criticize blockchain at all, just the idea of uninformed people betting on future price increases for the arbitrary coins). Why do I trust the dollar? I doubt you really believe this is going to overthrow all of our current financial system. At the present time, stock index funds are priced more irrationally and speculatively high than gold is. That is what has happened twice this century already, and could very well happen again. Mr. Money Mustache (Pete Adeney in real life) is a Colorado family man who retired 11 years ago at age 30 after an unexceptional 10-year engineering career, and now writes occasionally about. January 2, 2018, 6:46 pm. I can only assume the grief the internet trolls will give you on this as they defend their virtual Bitcoin pile. I believe I may be allergic to mercury. The $16,728 Social Security bonus most retirees completely overlook. Dit is je geld nu waard als je een jaar geleden Bitcoin, goud of andere assets kocht. While silver and copper has been used as a form of money (notably imperial China, it was a silver based society with gold used as a high currency), golds special attributes has always been seen as a form of value storage and trusted trade medium. Overall, it is just as likely to go up as it is down, especially in the near term, and is best to avoid all together unless you just love gambling and dont care about losing money. 2 Billion unbanked people on the planet to also enjoy a level playing field through this new Internet of Money. Value is subjective; not all speculation is irresponsible; gold and other odd stores of value have novelty effects. I understand this is an MMM forum but i mean come on.. you have to recognize that managed risk is a part of building wealth. For more casual sampling, have a look at this complete list of all posts since the beginning of time or download the mobile app. 15 Replies 10705 Views March 26, 2020, 05:23:27 PM . https://www.cryptocompare.com/mining/calculator/btc?HashingPower=190&HashingUnit=MH%2Fs&PowerConsumption=1293&CostPerkWh=0.12, Matt Stephenson Cest la vie. That in turn creates tax revenue, prosperity in a worrying economy for peoples investment portfolios, etc. So, all of the normal, previous ways of saving have been destroyed & the banks/corrupt bankers get bailed out, over & over & the regular people are sick of it. Tulips? For a long answer you need to understand the technicalities of it which I am not going to educate you on! My friend who has a Masters in Computer Science inquired with me about investing in Bitcoin before Christmas and I told her essentially what I thought as mania. I agree with MMM that cryptocurrency in general is kind of dubious, and that Bitcoin is a particularly stupid implementation of it. So, they sell it at a discount instead of losing revenue. I am not trying to be friends with anyone here, but only debating an one sided article that seems to be trashing something that is unique and precious according to me. Started by kayvent. So yes, blockchain = good bitcoin=maybe? Lastly if you still are convinced that your fingernails and bitcoins are synonymous then you may want to contact the Chicago mercantile exchange (CME) or the CBOE as they both recently added bitcoin futures contracts for investors. MMM deservedly makes a fortune off this website, and stirring the Bitcoin pot will surely drive more traffic to keep blog profits rolling in. Interesting article, with some great points. But how do you know youre investing in Amazon, and not Pets.com? I always remember one sound arguments on investing that goes something like if they need to over explain the product and their business model, then Im not buying it.. And it gets worse: Some large, popular components of the S&P have a PE of closer to 300, meaning it would take 300 years to earn back your initial investment. :). Not a penny was wasted. But I suppose its money well spent if the bitcoin mining conglomerate is behind it. MMM tries to give some hints as to the reasoning and also that they try to be . I am laughing my ass out. A large proportion of other coins are long term holds. GPU mining is dead. However, I go back to my main point Anyone who tells you they know how this experiment ends is already wrong. But maybe an iteration of that will be. Etrade is going to trade bitcoin futures. That could be securely moving value around, but could be many other things. This is not correct. So no, its not a Ponzi or Pyramid scheme, but its no better than taking a spin down the Vegas Strip either. That, is where were at. With cryptocurrencies, you are literally betting that world governments, the G20, all major banks, The United Nations, financial institutions, exchanges, Elon Musk, Warren Buffett, and all existing fiat currencies will change as radically as retail shopping has in the past 25 years. Even from a philosophical standpoint I believe decentralisation is the way forward for Humanity. 3) If you are retired, with enough to last you the rest of your life even in cash, then you have eliminated most risks (market crash etc) but not all- the currency you hold your wealth in can fall greatly. Thus, they are not useful, and produce nothing useful. Good comments Jon. Still no fundamentals. Got it. Great post, I have been content to sit on the sidelines and watch the show. A boy named Sue January 3, 2018, 12:25 pm, there may be a higher dollars-per-kilowatt-hour return, but I dont know these numbers myself. (Update from late 2018 Mike ended up being wayyyy wrong.). do not feed into this crap that there is no banking infrastructure. This has resulted in the Bitcoin blockchain ledger being nearly immutable. We will have to see if that new blockchain style will win out. So no surprise thats the first one, especially considering you need it to make the system work at all. Yes, its unstable, and you wouldnt say trade it, but as a long term investment it has been proven itself. But coincidentally, after I got my computer engineering degree I ended up specializing in security and encryption technologies for most of my career. Returns are down and all that cash needs to go somewhere. This is the most blasphemous thing ever to be written by MMM. I read somewhere on Twitter (cant remember where) that you can use anyone who uses Blockchain as a proper noun as a heuristic for how little they know of the space. I have accepted lifes nudge and opened up several pages of your blog and am working through them right after this, The Vigilante The Vigilante Its also dispatchable, which means the generator power output be turned on and off extremely rapidly to meet need. I agree with most of this article (rather a rant, eh? Government-issued currencies have value because they represent human trust and cooperation. Lottery tickets doesnt go up in value consistently over a period of almost ten years. I am of the opinion all of Fiat will get wiped out in a decade or two! Once you make this separation in your mind, you can see that Blockchain is a simply a nifty new software invention (which is open-source and free for anyone to use), whereas Bitcoin is just one well-known way to use it. There are dozens more data points just like these. What you are describing is called a silent crash. Cryptos may be the money of the future, but there is nothing sane about its rise this past year. People fall in love with works of art. Holy Shit! is the only reasonable reaction. Episode 497: Why Bitcoin is Stupid - 2 by Mr. Money Mustache. Vijay, its okay. Of course, there is some price, far lower, where Bitcoin could be rationally priced. If you want to continue the ride, why not let the original investment of $28,000 ride? Buying it is not necessarily speculative. rollie fingers Crypto is here to stay albeit probably not at insane prices. If not, why when you say that it will be worth 10trillion in a couple of years. Everything thats happening in the crypto space is just so normal as you would expect investors struggling to get the price right for something beyond the control of regulation. Because when the Northeaster blows through my town and knocks down a power line, I want to pay the 15 year old kid who knocked on my door and shoveled my driveway $30 bucks. Maybe the currencies will be useful to, but the really useful ones will be the ones designed for some purpose. In this way, dollars are the ultimate speculation. Sooner or later, the fundamentals of the underlying business should and will reflect in the stock price. That is what people said 1999/2000 for the dotcom bubble. The ones that take off will likely be govt created versions. Hell if I believed that I would work my ass of taking EVERYTHING I could and putting it into cryptos! A Ponzi scheme is a fraudulent operation designed to steal peoples money. They have been making a killing. It certainly is for day traders in short term. (Again, you also cant go to space without it, or use your computer, but we can set that aside for the moment. I can see scenarios where some of these platforms develop staying power and become increasingly valuable for the actual work that they are needed to accomplish. Perhaps its the utter lack of any regulation that baffles me, because blockchain I do kinda get, which is why I did put some money into IBM (yes, very un-Mustachian) after reading about their auto-encryption developments and its applicability in protecting personal info and consumer data. This is bitcoin's intrinsic value and the longer it exists, the more apparent it will be. Glad to see some sense being written to the red necks who seem to inhabit this blog! You can keep saying its a bubble for eternity. You cant vote with your wallet in this situation, so you have no control over what practices the miners use. How many here have switched from Mortgage Fast Pay to Money Market? The comment about 1999 investors didnt receive their investment back from stocks until this year well, for the rest of us that dont invest 100% of our money in the stock market in one instance AND we reinvest dividends, this type of situation is almost impossible. My issue is with the currencies themselves. Again, how is Bitcoin replacing that? Nobody needs to worry about whether terms will be met. Or sell half of GBTC. Just like gold, tulip bulbs, Beanie Babies, 1999 dotcoms without any hope of a product plan, pre-construction pricing Toronto condominiums you have no intent to occupy or rent out, and rare baseball cards are not investments. On top of that, wages are not keeping up with the rising costs of living. how is this different than a crypto? I completely agree, investing in Bitcoin is JUST like investing in lottery tickets. They dont tend to go longer than that. If it works out, its a windfall. farmecologist Mustachianism the mental training that gets you to very early financial freedom requires you to evaluate inefficiencies in our culture and call bullshit upon them. Blockchain may be the future, but that doesnt mean any of the current currencies will be worth anything. Try doing one thing the Banks dont want you to do, or the regimes in half the worlds countries dont want you to do, and you will know how financially ruined you will be! Started by myrrh. Exchanges get hacked or hacked (where the operators secretly run off with the coins) all the time. Some of them have no earnings at all. Mr. Money Mustache No. Worth at least an extra couple bitcoins there. That is where we are with Bitcoins. Jeremy Collins Im going to try putting some of my thoughts together in a post at the bottom. Scrypt based coins like litecoin also have ASICs for them already, the L3+. As the money supply increases, purchasing power is concentrated with the money creators at the expense of others holding the currency. Bitcoin reminds me of a story my daughter told me. Research Ethereum further. Eenvoudig leven . Vivek Prasannan Good points. Again, this is really only true for FIAT CURRENCIES. So you are further wagering that Bitcoin will literally supplant the USD as the world medium of financial exchange, and frankly, that is kinda bonkers. Shiller really just rediscovered it. Then Ill stick with what works for me now. All they can do is to ban and stop the exchanges. January 2, 2018, 6:20 pm. Vijay how can it be a useful currency without a relatively stable value? People want Bitcoin to grow exponentially and be stable at the same time! The good news is that more transactions alone wouldnt raise the energy cost (although more transactions are currently impossible anyway), and if Bitcoin raised the price of electricity in one country it would probably just cause people to mine somewhere else. Your in effect speculating on a winner even if you do believe the technology is the future. Thats fairly over the top. What is the US Dollar pegged to? Why? So, I harvest other peoples speculation and I dont lose anything, as I have already harvested more than what I put in. Thats why its unwise to go all-in on something just because its going up. babysitting, lawn mowing, snow shoveling, etc..) So, how is Bitcoin replacing that? And like investing in anything, its not a matter of altruism if Im right about the continuity of value in blockchains as measured by the value of its underlying currency, Ill see a healthy return on my investment. Alright then, do you have all your money invested in cryptocurrencies? Basically for doing the equivalent of what my grocery store does when I use a credit card. Keep fighting the good fight, Vijay. In all fairness, cash USD is also used for illegal activities. January 5, 2018, 8:26 am. Just imagine if an universal decentralised currency becomes the worlds reserve currency! If I lie to you and take your money, thats one thing. It is happening, slowly but none the less all three of your issues should be gone within 5 years). The second point is also critical: Bitcoin is only valuable if it truly becomes a critical world currency. I agree w jon. You clearly have a contrarian opinion here. Well, that is not what we are discussing are we? The rise in bitcoin represents people waking up to one delusion (false paper valuations) and unfortunately accepting another delusionthat digits are more valuable and trustworthy than paper. Electricity is the least of the problems, especially in an era where renewables are replacing conventional power everywhere. And to your last point Lightning network will be cheaper? No one person has control over it and that may end up being a good thing (people are corruptible). Its all the same stuff that people say about Gold, which is also a totally irrational waste of human investment energy. Bitcoin has just 200 billion capitalization currently. January 4, 2018, 9:20 am. This leviathan now stands at around $233 trillion, or 318 percent of global GDP. It has now grown quite a bit, of course. Unlike gold or tulip bulbs or cigarettes or salt, no one desires dollars as goods in and of themselves. Even a war on drugs, which has a physical element, isnt being won by central gov. A bitcoin is not an investment, just as. Tim Beck I dont know that page very good, but I think that answers this question ;). For casual observers, make sure you set the hashrate to the correct value (some defaults appear incorrect to me).. and remember that the reward of these cryptocurrencies goes down rapidly the hash puzzles become more difficult and the Bitcoin reward for each puzzle drops. January 19, 2018, 6:45 pm. Mr. Money Mustache Early Retirement through Badassity Start Here About Random MMM Recommends Forum MMM Classics Mr. Money Mustache View: Fancy Magazine | Classic Blog Welcome New Readers! We clearly see them in Africa, Middle East and Latin America. Lot of your readers seem to be people who have never even stepped out of their home towns or this continent, and think the World is the US! youre supposed to pay taxes on gains in crypto too . > There is a high chance that Bitcoin doesnt remain #1 forever because there are so many cryptocurrencies, many of which with very different applications, including some that arent even based on blockchain technology. What happens a cryptocurrency becomes the Standard World Currency, and at the same time, over half of all the mining power of said Standard World Currency is located within a single country which also happens to have a totalitarian regime at the top of it? Its odd he believes people require a government to establish a system of trust and cooperation. In short, historically gold is the truest measure of value, the safest store of wealth, and best insurance against fiat money and other manias (see Weimar Republic circa 1934). Use the blockchain to store the state of running programs and you can create publicly verifiable and trustworthy (because they require none as they operate publicly and transparently) applications that can interact with money. January 17, 2018, 9:00 am, bitcoin is down 50% in the past three weeks.

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